Modelling landslide impact from Cyclone Gabrielle
During Cyclone Gabrielle, the RiskScape software tool was applied to a real-life situation, allowing decision-makers to prioritise their cyclone preparedness, response, and recovery activities in real-time.
RiskScape assesses risk to people, buildings, and infrastructure from natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, and floods. The tool is one of very few open-source risk models available worldwide, allowing many sectors, such as land-use planners, asset managers, emergency managers, and insurance providers, to better manage the significant risks from natural hazard events.
Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023 caused loss of life and significant damage to buildings, infrastructure, and primary production, particularly in Hawkes Bay and Tairāwhiti. Responding agencies urgently needed to assess and understand the impacts of the landslides and flooding to make informed response decisions. A new multi-hazard risk model and information-sharing platform was needed, and fast.
As Cyclone Gabrielle approached, as a trial, MBIE and Toka Tū Ake EQC funded the development of a customized risk modeling dashboard to support the response efforts.
Using data from the rainfall-induced landslide model, the team first created a landslide impact model as the cyclone was approaching, which enabled forecasts to be calculated estimating impact to properties, state highways, and the rail network.
“RiskScape proved accurate, with initial residential claims similar to impact forecast spatial distribution and numbers.”
Following this, the team created a rainfall-induced landslide impact forecast and issued these twice daily to response agencies during the extreme weather event.
RiskScape proved accurate, with initial residential claims similar to impact forecast spatial distribution and numbers. This allowed recovery agencies and researchers to easily understand the complex data and stress test different impacts. The tool also fosters collaboration among agencies by offering a centralised platform for analysis.
The success from this trial provides a base to build on for future events, providing fast and accurate insights for decision-makers. The positive outcomes from this trial underscore RiskScape’s ability to ensure communities are equipped to handle future events.
Trial rainfall induced landslide impact forecast which estimated the number of landslides per km of State Highway.
“RiskScape is ready to provide evidence-based advice and modelling to help New Zealand avoid, mitigate or adapt to these hazards.”
There are many hazards that we’re yet to face associated with redevelopment, urban growth, climate change, and land-use planning. RiskScape is ready to provide evidence-based advice and modeling to help New Zealand avoid, mitigate, or adapt to these hazards. Success will be RiskScape being used to inform regional planning and ultimately save lives and maintain our vital infrastructure.